Retail Investor announces Retirement from Stock Markets

My broker friend Jigneshbhai had asked me and Swami to come over to an investor camp last Sunday for our evening coffee. At that event, a retail investor took center stage. Inspired by Sachin Tendulkar’s heart-touching farewell speech, the retail investor made an emotional speech thanking everyone for his experiences in trying to get rich … Read more

Department of Internet Control: Creating Jobs by Screening Social Content

“Take the first left after the third signal from here” my South Indian friend Swami said to the person asking him directions in cold Delhi over hot coffee. “This is the 10th car since morning asking me for the address of the Ministry of Human Resources or Ministry of Information Technology” remarked Swami. “Looks like … Read more

Play for the Country: The Noble Intentions of our Cricketers

My South Indian friend Swami had just returned from Australia, and joined us directly over the weekend coffee, straight from the airport. My broker friend and I were discussing what’s in store for the markets, specially after this mass downgrade done by S&P to European nations, when Swami barged in. After a long time, Jigneshbhai … Read more

भ्रष्टाचार को पकड़ना मुश्किल ही नहीं नामुमकिन है: The unending search for catching corruption

“There is one thing tougher than catching ‘Don’. Call it Mission Impossible if you will, though it is tougher than that. Can you tell me what it is?” asked my South Indian friend Swami as we sipped an evening coffee.

I gave it some thought for a while and ventured a guess. “Beating Australia in Australia.”

“No, we have done it a few years back”, Swami said, rejecting my answer. “Any other guesses?”

Then it was my broker friend Jigneshbhai’s turn. “Beating the market index?”

“Naah, sometimes some people do end up beating the index. It is मुश्किल, but not नामुमकिन,” said Swami, like a quiz master, surprisingly using Hindi, possibly giving us clues.

When there were no more guesses, he finally announced in chaste Hindi, “Well, you may achieve Mission Impossible and catch Don, but भ्रष्टाचार को पकड़ना मुश्किल ही नहीं नामुमकिन है!”

He continued telling us that he had just finished watching three thrilling, adventure movies in the course of the week. He started with watching Tom Cruise jumping off buildings in Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol, and was impressed with the thrills. On the next day, on the insistence of his wife, despite the Ra.One experience, he went and watched Don 2: The Chase Continues. He said he was impressed with the thrills, pace and slickness of the movie.

But the most thrilling of all was the movie he watched on TV spread from Tuesday through Thursday, in which he followed a bunch of talented artistes chase and nail down a known evil named ‘भ्रष्टाचार’. “It seemed a thrilling, almost non-scripted ride. It was never clear what will happen next”, remarked Swami.

“In fact, there was amazing suspense on who the heroes were, who the villains were, and viewers were left wondering whether they kept changing roles”, remarked my broker friend, Jigneshbhai who had partly watched some of the proceedings.

“Yeah – new characters kept coming in from time to time. The stage kept moving, new rules and equations between various characters kept on emerging. In fact, at one point, they even left the viewer guessing on whether the story was actually about nailing down this भ्रष्टाचार guy, or if the plot had changed to something else”, Swami remarked, confused as always.

“Hey, you must be joking about the Lokpal Bill”, I said.

“Yes, of course. But were the thrills in it anything less than MI-4 or Don-2?”, mocked Jigneshbhai. On second thoughts, he continued “Well – those movies at least have a happy ending. This one does not seem like it is going to end soon.”

“But they were going to pass the bill soon, I had thought. Perhaps this session or the next”, I said, trying to be a bit logical and patient. One better be rational and take a well-considered view, specially when it comes to issues of national importance.

But then Swami said, “Well, it is a thriller – so you never know what will happen. They may pass it, but most likely not. In any case, passing the bill is one thing. But catching भ्रष्टाचार is another. That guy will still get away. Don does not catch himself, right?”

He continued, “That’s why I said, Tom Cruise may achieve Mission Impossible. Don may get caught eventually. India may beat Australia in Australia. Someone might even beat the market index consistently. Those things are easy. But it has been 40 plus years now – in our unending search for catching corruption. So भ्रष्टाचार को पकड़ना मुश्किल ही नहीं नामुमकिन है.”

Why Bulls, Bears, Pigs and The Big Fish don’t matter, and Cows and Goats do

“The ocean in Mauritius is just wonderful, blue-green and pristine. Truly is a paradise island”, said my South Indian friend, Swami who had just been back from his vacation. One of the few times I had seen him happy, without much to complain about. Just when I thought he was in a good mood, he said, “But I got badly tanned. Got fully blackened, and for two days, I could not get out of my house.”

“So did you do any under water activities?” asked Jigneshbhai my broker friend.

“Yes, I think that and the sun is the reason for my tan. But it was worth it. The sea life – the fish and other sea animals were just wonderful to see up close under water.” Swami remarked. Clearly, his vacation had got more positives than negatives out of him. I was glad to note that he loved the sea, the fish and the sea animals more than he disliked the seafood. And if this is what Mauritius could do to Swami, I am sure it must be really be paradise for normal mortals. Jigneshbhai and I exchanged a smile on that thought.

But our thoughts were interrupted.

“I am not interested in the small fish. It is not useful to check even what the big fish are doing.”

We just looked around to check who had spoken. It was the wealthy man in the sprawling bungalow who had just joined us. I am sure he must be frequently going to Mauritius – I hear it is some sort of tax haven for wealthy people and foreigners. So not surprised that he had a view on the sea life there.

“No, sir. I could see only the small fish, we did not go deep enough to see the big fish. But the small fish were very beautiful and interesting, sir!”, Swami remarked, trying to disagree with the wealthy man.

“No point in following the small fish or the big fish. I am not interested in either the bulls or the bears also”, said the wealthy man.

He was known to speak rarely, and when he did, it was cryptic. But I was not sure he realized that we were talking of Mauritius. As far as we knew, bulls or bears were in the safari or at best in the markets. We just stayed silent, trying not to look awkward.

But Swami could not resist continuing. “Sir, we did not go to mainland Africa, only to the island of Mauritius. So did not see any bears, bulls or other animals in the safari.”

“Well, Africa is still the new frontier. You should be more worried about the Pigs in Europe – I hope someone takes care of them.” As he said this, we were almost getting on the edge now. Swami and I were desperately trying to make sense of this conversation.

I think Jigneshbhai got what the wealthy man was trying to say now. He quietly signaled to us to stay silent and asked, “Sir, got it. Those economies – Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain are in trouble, and I understand that this is good time to ignore the bulls, bears and all the big and small fish or anyone who has a view on the markets.”

“Yes, indeed. You are right”, smiled the wealthy man, finally satisfied that someone understood what he was saying.

While both Swami and I were clueless, Jigneshbhai eagerly asked, “Sir, in that case, which animals do you prefer?” This left us further dumbstruck. Looked like he had picked up the animal language.

The wealthy man replied, “Honestly, I prefer goats and cows. They are easy to maintain, need just simple grass, and are sure to give you milk regularly. As they grow older, they almost always multiply easily. If they don’t, their meat is useful. So even if you pay a high price, goats and cows are useful, valuable animals.”

While Swami and I were wondering what happened to our conversation on Mauritius, Jigneshbhai was happy hearing what the wealthy man said, almost cheerful and thanked the wealthy man as he left back for his sprawling bungalow. And while leaving, the wealthy man turned back to us and said, “There’s a lot of animal instincts out there. So don’t go with the herd.”

Your Call is Important to Us: The Tragicomedy of Customer Service

My simple-hearted friend Swami was in a restless mood the other day when we met over coffee. ““कृपया प्रतीक्षा करें, आप कतार में हैं” – isn’t that what they said, when you called customer service numbers in those days?” he asked us. “Some of them said ‘Please wait. You are in queue’,” my wise friend … Read more

Standard Operating Procedure: An 18-Step Success Guide for Politicians

Standard Operating Procedures used in service industries like technology and healthcare bring in standardization, process orientation and overall efficiency, and are increasingly bringing the same benefits to politics.
  1. Politician comes to position of power and sets in place a proper system to implement corrupt practices. Initially he makes sure everyone in the chain is satisfied and gets his due, so the system runs smoothly.
  2. After a while, he gets a bit insecure and realizes that he has limited time to ensure his life time needs are met. So he gets a bit greedy, and in the process misses to give someone their due.
  3. If the politician is highly experienced, go back to Step 1 and keep continuing the iterations. He is then on his way to political superstardom. Else Go to Step 4.
  4. Somehow word gets out, and a press article appears on how the politician is corrupt and has used his position of power for personal gains.
  5. Politician reacts and says that he is being victimized by the opposition. Politician and his party continue to say that character assassination is politically motivated
  6. Opposition says that they need an independent inquiry into the issue.
  7. In case he is truly a big fish or on the way to become one, go back to Step 5. The arguments continue and eventually die out. Most ambitious politicians should aspire to stay in this loop for most of their lives. In majority of the cases, there is an agreement between the party in power and the opposition and the issue is settled. Only if things get serious or out of hand, Go to Step 8.
  8. Forced by something which could be anything from not getting a share of the corruption money to taking advantage of the public mood, an inquiry has to be set up in excruciating circumstances – headed, in most cases, by a former, retired judge.
  9. The opposition rejects the formation of the inquiry commission saying that the character of the person who heads it as well as the members is not spotless, and hence this is an eyewash.
  10. Then after some time which could be a few months to many years, the inquiry gets done and a report is submitted, which finds some elements of wrong doing but no conclusive evidence. At this point, things generally close on the topic, or there is a demand for another investigation, in which case go back to Step 8 and repeat. Only if there is some serious suspicion, go to Step 11.
  11. The original politician’s party, senses that it is time to distance themselves from the politician – and so says that the legal process will take its due course and they believe that our judicial system will mete out punishment to the offenders in case of any wrong doing.
  12. As part of this process, someone from the opposition co-incidentally gets caught in an act of corruption. The opposition claims this is political vendetta. Go to step 11 and repeat for a few months and then go to step 13.
  13. Finally the court hearing the inquiry commission asks them why they did such a shoddy job, and why a case was not registered, and then, due to this kind of embarrassment at the hands of the judiciary, some proof is quickly gathered, and perhaps a case is registered.
  14. Hearings go on from lower court to upper court, Go back to step 13 for a few months, and then something happens and it looks like the politician may be cornered. Now go to step 15.
  15. A bail application is then made by the politician’s lawyers, and it is mostly rejected.
  16. The politician then falls ill and seeks bail on medical grounds – which is granted. Go back to step 13 through 16 and the process repeats. Finally in the rarest of the rare cases, in case he truly has no political utility for anyone, he has to resign.
  17. If it is really bad with seriously bad media coverage, he may lose the election next time. If it is not that bad, and some damage control has been done, he may win or someone else from his party will win in his place.
  18. A new politician comes to a position of power. Go to step 1 and repeat.

A Gambler’s Instinct: The knack for taking calculated risks and knowing when to take them

“One thing that is different in our players of today and our players of yesterday is that earlier our players used to play mostly not to lose, and today they very often play to win”, said my broker friend Jigneshbhai over our Sunday evening coffee. Continuing, he remarked, “The difference may seem minor but is vast. In the first approach, the best result you will get in the game is a prevention of loss and then you hope for a win. While in the second approach, the worst approach you may get is a loss, but if you calculate your risks, you may also get a big win.”

“Like what happened last week, when Dhoni and Raina suddenly decided in the 35th over that they were not happy with 225 as that may, at best, prevent a loss, but wanted 300 to play for a win.”

“But there was risk in it. What if they had lost their wicket?” interjected Swami.

He was right. There was a risk of that happening, and in that case even the result of prevention of loss would have been difficult to guarantee. “Yes, that’s right. Playing for a win always has more risk than playing not to lose. And it is not always sensible at all times to play only for a win. There will be stages when it is best to play not to lose. But the reason I think Dhoni is a great captain is because he has a wonderful gambler’s instinct that helps him decide when to play not to lose and when to play for a win. And acts accordingly.”

Just as we were leaving, he added, “You know, Swami. In the long-term game of investments in the capital markets, playing not to lose can, sometimes, also mean you are playing to win. It seems to me that the current period is one of those times when you can both play not to lose as well as play to win.”

And then in the background I heard this song by the famous country music singer Kenny Rogers that he started humming as we left.

“Now every gambler knows the secret to survivin’
Is knowin’ what to throw away
And knowin’ what to keep
‘Cause every hand’s a winner
And every hand’s a loser
And the best that you can hope for
Is to die in your sleep”

“So when he finished speakin’
He turned back for the window
Crushed out his cigarette
And faded off to sleep then somewhere in the darkness
The gambler he broke even,
but in his final words
I found an ace that I could keep”

“You’ve got to know when to hold ’em
Know when to fold ’em
Know when to walk away
know when to run
You never count your money
When you’re sittin’ at the table
There’ll be time enough for countin’
When the dealin’s done”

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn481KcjvMo]

Ranjit’s Newsletter

Loading