Four Legs and a टेढ़ी Tail: Jigneshbhai and Swami

“Abraham Lincoln once posed the question: ‘If you call a dog’s tail a leg, how many legs does it have?’ and then answered his own query: ‘Four, because calling a tail a leg doesn’t make it one,'” Buffett writes.

Our broker friend Jigneshbhai was reading from Warren Buffett’s latest annual letter to his shareholders. He continued as he read further.

“Buffett then sarcastically adds: “Abe would have felt lonely on Wall Street.””

The lazy skeptic in our broker friend seemed to have loved this. I saw that he had a wide grin on his face as he looked up at us after reading this.

Swami and I were just digesting this leg-tail business when our broker friend continued.

“Not just on Wall Street, Lincoln would have felt lonely at so many places, with so many bent on calling a tail a leg, isn’t it?” Jigneshbhai asked, with, maybe, a slight sense of resignation.

“No wonder Lincoln is said to be one of their greatest Presidents. While everyone saw their version of reality, he saw reality as it was,” our broker continued, still excited about what he had read.

Swami and I were wondering which tails and legs and their ‘mis-calling’ was our broker friend referring to.

Swami was the first to ask, as usual.

“Buffett is probably referring to the accounting shenanigans that so many companies indulge in – when they don’t call some expenses as expenses. I read his latest letter” he remarked proudly.

Jigneshbhai was pleasantly surprised with Swami’s comment.

“Indeed. Reality doesn’t change when you call it something else” he said, and then after a few moments of silence, added, “All that you manage is an illusion.”

Swami looked at me and wondered if our broker friend was talking about expenses or something else.

Swami was definitely thinking about only accounting. “You need to be careful about such companies and such managements. The ones who regularly indulge in calling a tail a leg. Expenses need to be represented correctly to shareholders,” he proclaimed confidently.

He was probably right about being careful of managements that do such misrepresentation. But Jigneshbhai was probably talking about misrepresentations of reality by some other entities.

“If you don’t see and accept reality as it is, and keep calling it something else, reality itself doesn’t change, isn’t it?” he continued again.

“And that’s true of not just companies and managements, but also of people, political parties and even countries, of late, isn’t it? If you repeatedly call a tail, a leg, it doesn’t become a leg.”

“It is better to maintain some distance from them – because anyone who repeatedly calls a tail a leg will hardly change that habit. And actually start believing it.”

“After a while, even you can forget that what you call a leg is actually a tail.”

Jigneshbhai stopped and looked at us with a sigh. Swami and I started thinking about what our broker friend had just said – perhaps Lincoln’s statement applied not just to accounting, we thought.

But Swami was still not sure what to do and how to deal with those who call a tail a leg, repeatedly (though our broker friend had advised a safe distance!)

Just as we were thinking about it, the wealthy man in the sprawling bungalow, who had been listening to our conversation, came across to our table. Jigneshbhai smiled at him as he saw him coming.

And as we finished our coffee, the wealthy man looked at Swami and said “कुत्ते की दुम टेढ़ी की टेढ़ी – कभी सीधी नहीं होती. You must deal with them assuming this!”

Howards Marks Memo: There they go again!

..and again!!

That’s the title of a memo sent by the famous investor Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital to his clients recently. And it refers to how he is happiest writing when bull markets start going far, risk aversion disappears and there’s money all around inflating potential bubbles.

It is quite a long memo listing and describing various indicators that seem to be currently aligning together suggesting the prevalence of such a bubble type situation. For those interested in reading it, you can download it here.

But for those who don’t have the inclination or the time to go through the indicators, the what to do section at the end is what is most relevant. And honestly speaking it is nothing new, but it is well worth repeating.

There is no one size fits all action for all – so his answers are more like an essay on the one hand, and philosophy on the other. But the message is clear: There is a time to chase returns and there is a time to assess risk. And the time for caution is here, and the time for assessing low risk options is here.

So for individual intelligent investors, it is nothing new really. Dhirendra Kumar of Value Research Online in his well meaning article here says that it is well worth repeating the old stuff now.

The steps stay the same. They still constitute sticking to your asset allocation, re-balancing your portfolio if it has gone a bit out of whack, continuing to make investments as per your plan, and neglect the markets with a long term orientation.

The problem with this is that there is nothing new. But it still needs repetition, because it is tough to follow in practice.

Jason Zweig – the famous columnist and editor of the book “The Intelligent Investor” once wrote in a column titled “Saving Investors from themselves” (Please make it a point to read it here) that when asked how he defined his job, he said “My job is to write the exact same thing between 50 and 100 times a year in such a way that neither my editors nor my readers will ever think I am repeating myself.”

In my case, fortunately I don’t have to write so often, there is no editor, and readers shouldn’t mind repetition for their own sake. It will save them from themselves.

This is clearly the time to repeat the same old stuff.

As Howard Marks said in his memo, this approach of taking low risk options will not necessarily give you the highest returns, but what it will ensure is that you survive.

Here is what he says towards the ending sections of his memo which are well worth remembering:

“If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you will (a) lag in terms of return (b) look like a old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital)  when others eventually lose theirs.” “They will also make you a long term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.”

So there they go again. And hence it is indeed time to stick to the old stuff, even more so.

 

Worth Reading 16/06

Some articles that I found worth reading this week:

Pay Attention to Asset Allocation in this Bull Market  LINK

Active Value Investing: Is it really better?  LINK

Is the Product Attractive? Mental Models and Moats  LINK

The Seduction of Pessimism  LINK

Video Interview: The Contrarian Gene|Seth Klarman (~15 min)  LINK

Video Interview: Buffett, Jorge Paulo Lemann|Brazil Conference (~55 min)  LINK

“Take the probability of loss times the amount of possible loss from the probability of gain times the amount of possible gain. That is what we’re trying to do. It’s imperfect, but that’s what it’s all about.” -Warren Buffett

Importance of Rebalancing for the Defensive Investor

Often investors – specially those who call themselves defensive – can’t make up their mind on when to sell, as they have no particular reasons for doing so – except looking at market levels. A good answer to that comes from systematic and regular rebalancing (almost scheduled or using some similar discipline).

Came across a good article that explains rebalancing – more important with elevated market levels almost across the board. Should be a good reminder for defensive investors to take stock.

Read it here

Interesting conversation: Mohnish Pabrai with Steve Pomeranz

Came across an interesting conversation that the famous value investor Mohnish Pabrai had with Steve Pomeranz. He talks about what value investing is, why individual companies matter to him more than broader markets (though not advised for normal passive or ‘defensive’ investors), the importance of temperament which should be a strange mix of patience and … Read more

The Madness of Crowds

Either I am a completely outdated, antique piece who doesn’t get it, or I may be a very calm composed person. I tend to give myself a positive spin with a benefit of doubt thinking it is the latter, but I suspect the former is perhaps closer to the truth.

The last week has seen me pose a dumb look on two seemingly obvious phenomena that I supposedly should have been lapping up and going crazy about. Both of them made me feel like that guy in the ‘Yeh PSPO nahi jaanta’ advertisement with the sheepish smile.

The first happened earlier this week when everyone was talking about a new game called Pokémon GO and I made the mistake of asking a colleague ‘is that a new cartoon series?’ And the second one, perhaps an even bigger faux pas yesterday, specially in Bangalore, was to ask a friend ‘What is this Kabali?’ I probably might have narrowly escaped a thrashing from the onlooking crowd.

I find myself in numerous such situations of late. Perhaps such situations are happening more often in this new age of social and mobile and trending or whatever – again my own benefit of doubt to myself.

Mark Twain said that a ‘Classic′ is a book which people praise and don’t read. In that era, it probably took a long time after a book is released for it to achieve this kind of status. A few of Twain’s own books achieved that kind of status.

It seems that this period has been drastically cut of late. And it applies to not just books, but probably to movies, new products, games, apps, mobile phones, electronic devices, and what have you. And it looks like most of them become classics before they are released. Things people praise, talk about but haven’t yet read or seen – because they are not yet released. And I am left wondering what to do every time such a phenomenon turns up with the ‘Yeh PSPO nahin jaanta’ sheepish look.

This phenomenon was probably started by the iPhone mania in the US. For apps, maybe Angry Birds started it. Harry Potter movies used to see these delusions before release. And lately every new mobile phone release is ‘highly awaited’. So the stampede surrounding Kabali is hardly a surprise.

madnessofcrowds

In the 1841 book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, Charles MacKay wrote of the crowd psychology that drive numerous “National Delusions,” “Peculiar Follies,” and “Psychological Delusions.”

“We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.”

It does look like these delusions are more frequent of late – perhaps because there are so many objects attracting the attention of these minds (and their pockets) with easy channels of communication.

Many of these delusions are fleeting of course, and in all honesty, quite entertaining. All of them have the common result of getting some money out of your pocket. Some high, some low. A movie ticket here, or a book there, or some paid app, or at best a higher sum for a new electronic device maybe. So the harm is limited somewhat – for all the mania, it won’t leave a big hole in your pocket before, or even if it turns bad, a lasting one on your mind after.

But in the financial markets, these delusions are dime-a-dozen, and can be quite harmful. In fact, much of the day-to-day markets run on some delusion or the other – big or small. Many of them can also last quite long pulling even the most patient and experienced hands in. And with Love in the air (as in my last post), there are lots of new money-dwindling devices (like IPOs, new fund offers, expensive stocks, research reports, technical tips, stories of riches, business news, what have you!) waiting for your mind to get fixated on them. That’s where the madness of crowds can be not just entertaining, but positively harmful as well.

In such delusions, a dissenter from the crowd can look foolish, and despite all the patience, can eventually end up joining in for the fear of missing out. It is only later that one can learn whether one was sane or stupid. It is better to miss out on such madness of crowds – due to being outdated, lazy or composed, or some other reason.

It is worthwhile to remember what Charles Mackay rightly wrote in 1841.

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”

Now let me go get my ticket for Kabali.

Prem Watsa on the social bubble and other quotes

Prem Watsa was once called the savviest value investor you will never know. He is also known as the Canadian Buffett. In fact, his investing approach is uncannily similar. He heads Fairfax which owns multiple insurance companies. He generally buys companies in whole and mostly when they are in trouble (Blackberry being a recent example). … Read more

After 50 years: Excerpts from Buffett’s Letter to Shareholders

This year marks 50 years of Buffett and Munger running Berkshire Hathaway. Since 1977, Buffett has been writing an annual letter to his shareholders. A compilation of these letters was also published as a book. This year the letter has its details on business performance, plus the now regular interesting insights and wisdom as usual, … Read more

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