humour

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Observations in a World of Divergent and Opportunistic Opinions

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good-bad-ugly“Are you a vegetarian or non-vegetarian?” asked the waiter at the hotel to my South Indian colleague Swami. This question always confuses him. “I am a vegetarian mostly, but I can eat chicken, except on Tuesday and Friday. So it depends on what everyone else is ordering”, he replied. Such responses always confuse waiters in hotels, who have a simple way of classifying people. According to them, there are two types of people in the world – vegetarian and non-vegetarian. Alas if only it was so simple – my South Indian colleague Swami being a case in point.

“There are two kinds of people in the world, those with loaded guns, and those who dig. You dig.” Clint Eastwood made this dialogue immortal in the movie “The Good, The Bad and The Ugly”.

It seems to me that there are two types of people in the country, or maybe the cricketing world, at least for now. Those who think that MS Dhoni was right in calling Ian Bell back (in the Trent Bridge test), and those who feel he was stupid to show such generosity on the English team.

Among those who think he was right, again there are two groups – those who think he was a true statesman of the game, doing it to uphold the spirit of the game; and those who think he was just a pragmatist, and hence did it to ensure that the Indian cricket team’s brand value (and hence the money they earn) does not go down.

And then there are those type of people (mostly media commentators!) who change their views according to the situation. Those who initially started justifying the morals of how Dhoni was right in appealing for the run out, and how the spirit of the game itself has changed in today’s world of cut-throat professional cricket; and later changed to applauding Dhoni for his generous act on realising that Ian Bell was walking out to bat again.

There are some other ‘two types of people’ in the world today too.

Those that think Breivik, the person who fired at and killed 70 odd people in Norway, was an example of emerging, right-wing, ethnic extremism in Europe, and those who think it was not that – that it was just the delirium of a madman.

Among those who feel he was an extremist, again there are two groups – those who are shocked by the scale and brutality of the murders irrespective of who did it, and those who are shocked because the killer was not an Islamic terrorist, but a Christian Westerner who hated the tolerance of multiculturalism.

And then, there are those type of people (mostly Western politicians!) who change their views according to the situation. Those who started condemning the killing as another example of ‘acts of terror’, and then called it a madman’s act after realising that the killer was not an Islamic terrorist.

There are two types of people in the markets too.

Those who think long-term fundamentals-driven investing is the right way of making money in the markets, and those who think there is nothing like long-term, as all of us are dead in the long-term – so short-term technicals-driven trading is the way to go. Those who invest for wealth creation, and those who trade for income generation.

And then there are those type of people (mostly Brokers and people on business channels!) who change their views according to the situation. Those who say investing is the way initially, and then, when the markets go up tell us to become traders. Or those who tell us to make money as traders initially, and then, when the markets go down, ask us to become long-term investors.

So it seems the world is made up of two types of people with two sets of clear but divergent views. And then, there is a third type who change their views depending on what suits them; but who somehow seem to matter and drive their worlds.

And finally, there is a fourth category. That is the type of people who have no view as such, perhaps the majority, depending on the arguments between the first three types to form an opinion. If you are neutral and have no view, your individual view probably does not matter much, and is there for the taking to be influenced. You are probably the common man with no voice, and in the markets, you are probably the retail guy with no choice. Like my South Indian colleague Swami, you are dead meat even before placing the order!

Liquid Oxygen Syndrome: A Modern Day Illness of a High Paying Job and a Higher EMI

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Human motivations are complex to understand, and sometimes funny when experienced.

Yesterday a colleague of mine relentlessly kept on enlightening me on the so many bad things about his job. He started with how things were getting from bad to worse, and how they could get even worse going forward. On how he was never given the position and respect he deserves, the raises he was entitled to, and the applause that he was always ready to stand up for (but which never came). How in the big bad corporate world, everyone was a liar, and how his boss also has no real power. On How he was not offered what was promised, and how everyone was being conned. How he used to have a cabin (sic!) and now can’t find a seat, and how he used to manage people and now has to search for work himself.

I gave him a silent hearing (!) – neither quite sympathizing with him, nor taking a risk in antagonizing him, but almost staying indifferent. Finally, interjecting after a short pause he took during a long ramble, I opportunistically suggested to him – why not leave your job then, specially if it was so bad? His mood suddenly got more aggravated – oscillating between being angry and getting calm. I was not quite able to understand the state of that emotion. Suddenly he confided in me – boss, where else will I get this kind of money? In my previous job, salary was not that good. Who will now pay the EMI for my house and car?

At this point, I wasn’t quite sure whether he was cribbing about the job problems, or boasting about his new increased salary, house, car, et al. Well, hardly an occasion to poke someone I felt – specially when you are not sure whether he is happy or sad. Capitalism does things to people I felt, specially when accompanied by globalization. Not quite the time to say anything, I thought. And hence I quietly walked away as the conversation ended.

ajitFunny what thought strikes you when. But I remembered an old ‘Ajit’ joke then, and now remember it every time I see this colleague after that conversation.  He seemed to me a victim of what is a modern day disease that I have now started calling “Liquid Oxygen Syndrome”. It strikes young people who cannot live in the present because they have borrowed heavily from the future. Generally victims cannot enjoy the ‘oxygen’ of their good life because of the unending ‘liquid’ of their large EMI and other, mostly unending, lifestyle liabilities. It generally occurs in urban educated young men with reasonably decent incomes, who decide to make their life indecent by going for things they want, but don’t necessarily need. This syndrome was invented (or discovered?) by Ajit, the popular comico-villain of yesteryears in Indian cinema, when he said to his sidekick (in a joke, though): “Raabert, Isko Liquid Oxygen Me Daal Do. Liquid Ise Jeene Nahi Dega, Oxygen Ise Marne Nahi Dega”.

What do ‘Horn OK Please’ and ‘Mutual Funds are subject to Market Risks’ have in common?

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Travellers on Indian roads would be very familiar with this sign. Almost every truck, specially the big inter state ones that cross highways, has this funny term written behind them “Horn OK Please”. I have seen it often, and have never quite understood its significance. Having asked a few people, even they seem to be unaware of the meaning of this term and why it is there. Some say it is a warning for drivers behind the truck to blow the horn before overtaking it, which seems to be the most plausible explanation. Others say that O.K stands for On Kerosene as trucks earlier were run on them, so it was a warning for vehicles trying to overtake such trucks. In any case, it seems like it was supposed to be some kind of a warning for people following a truck.

Perhaps, it is now just a meaningless tradition that most truck owners and drivers blindly follow – painting their trucks with a “Horn OK Please” sign without really meaning much. The funny thing is that no one cares for that sign too, except for some amusement factor. Sometimes not even that. No vehicle following trucks (other trucks included) cares for that sign or follows it – they overtake anyway as they wish.

So what’s the point? I got reminded of that funny sign behind trucks a couple of times today while watching a business channel. The first occasion was when watching a mutual fund ad, at the end of which there was this scrambled, hurried announcement. “Mutual Funds are subject to market risk. Please read the offer document carefully before investing.” And the second one was after a show discussing stocks, in which an expert just before wrapping up, announced a quick disclosure shown also on screen. “I, my company or our clients may have positions and interest in all the stocks discussed. Viewers are advised to take their investment decisions at their own discretion based on advice from their financial advisor.” Or something to that effect.

Both these statements and the manner in which they were made sounded to me like “Horn OK Please.” Almost all experts on the show (and all other shows) as well as all mutual fund ads ended with these statements. The people making these statements did not quite know why they were making it – perhaps they were following some tradition or regulation in this case. They were kind of making them blindly without really meaning much. Like the truck owners paint their trucks. And the people for whom these statements were made, presumably investors and traders, were not likely to take those statements seriously. They were, anyway, not going to read the offer documents, or were unlikely to neglect the advice or recommendation given just because someone had a vested interest in them. Perhaps similar to how other drivers view Horn OK Please. You read it, but you overtake anyway.

Neither the maker of the statement means them, nor do the readers take them seriously. Perhaps, both get some amusement out of it. Striking similarity with “Horn OK Please”?

No News is Good News: Is Your Expert Service Provider also Honest?

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The wife has been feeling a bit unwell with frequent abdominal aches for the past few weeks. (I am going to refer to my wife as “the wife” like the humorist Busybee used to in his articles in Mumbai’s “The Afternoon” so many years back – I used to find it so funny). So well – getting back, the wife has been a bit unwell. I have a mild version of hospital phobia, despite the wife being a doctor. In a sense, that works well because the wife takes health decisions for everyone at home – on which illness is to be neglected, when you should be happy with just some medicines and when an illness is to be taken seriously enough to visit the hospital. So this time, the wife being the patient, took a call that enough of medicines – it was time that she needed an “endoscopy”. So we finally got an appointment, went to the hospital and got it done. Well – after that, the surgeon called me in, and very dutifully showed me all the photographs and videos that the endoscope had recorded. I blankly nodded with a studious look pretending that I understood everything he said, as if I see the insides of stomachs day in and day out. And finally, at the end of it, he said something to this effect – there is nothing, it is all fine and normal. Just a bit of gastritis, let her manage her lifestyle and health, do not give her stress and things should go away. You do not worry.

Once I got out, I asked the wife – so you have no illness? No indeed. So there was no news as such. We got through a procedure and there was no news. Which actually was good news.

The wife was pretty cool about it. This happens all the time she said. Patients who feel they have a serious illness due to pain in the stomach turn out to be simple gastritis patients 80% of the time. As the conversation progressed, she continued – “In fact, doctors admit them just because patients refuse to go back often. And sometimes, not just that, the patient who is not ill ends up picking up an infection from the hospital! So, if you are seriously ill, your odds of getting better improve when you get admitted, but if you are not seriously ill, the odds of getting worse are more! Now you understand why I neglect most of your petty illnesses at home.” Towards the end, I thought that was not the doctor speaking, it was the wife.

Be that as it may, it sounded amazing to me – but then I guess doctors are people too, doctors are wives too. The wife continued – “But this doctor was good and honest too. He did not tell you that we will need to observe and prescribe something more. Maybe because I am a doctor here.”

So that was it – we found a doctor who was honest enough to tell us – you do not need me. And a patient who was obedient enough to listen to him.

This is not as common as it looks. Perhaps in medicine, you have more honest doctors and more obedient patients – because it is about your life and health. So the chances of coming across such doctors still is high – despite all the corporatisation of healthcare and the works. But it struck me that in other areas where people are supposed to be ‘doctors’ or experts in their fields, they do not always act with that kind of integrity. How many experts at auto service stations tell you when you take your car for a check up that “Your car does not need me”? How many accountants will tell you – well, everything is fine with your accounts, why don’t you file your returns yourself? How many financial advisers to whom you take your portfolio are honest enough to tell you “Your financial health is fine and this is why you do not need me”? And finally, how many of us would be happy with these kind of advisers, and like good patients – obedient enough to take their advise? Has it ever been the case that when you engaged some of these ‘doctors’ you were perfectly fine and then caught an infection?

Something to ponder upon. Well – the fact is that instances of finding experts who say – “you do not need me” are few and far between. It is possible that you do need some medicines some time, but if according to your expert, you need them all the time, perhaps it is time to change your doctor for these areas. Move to someone who gives you no news. Sometimes, no news can be good news.

Of Barbers and Brokers: Why it is important to know what you are looking for

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Every few weeks, Saturday mornings are reserved for the barber. Today was one of those, so my son and I had our visit to the salon. After our customary drive and parking, and a few minutes of waiting for our turn, we finally were called in and sat into our ‘throne’ to get started with his ‘services’. Mind you, salons in major cities in India have got quite savvy. So unlike a few years back when you just went to a barber shop to get a haircut, now you go to a wellness salon which provides ‘overall hair and beauty services’. They have a quite a range of services on offer to grab more ‘share of wallet’ from you.

But despite that some things have not changed. So the first question I get when I am seated is still – ‘do you want it cut short, medium or long?’ I have never been able to figure out what to answer this question with. Obviously, long is out of question, else I would not be here. But between short and medium, I have never figured what I really want. When I say short, I kind of need to clarify that I do not want an army crew cut. When I say medium, I generally follow it up with some comment that suggests – but do not cut just a bit! After that, I hope he has got what I want and then silently sit waiting for him to do his job.

This is similar to the ‘agony aunt’ stock question-answer programs you have on TV. So the caller asks – I bought so and so stock at Rs.100 two weeks back – what should I do now, buy, hold or sell? And the advising broker asks him – can you hold for short-term or long-term? Similar to ‘do you want your hair short or medium?’, this question has no clear answer. So the caller answers, long-term, and just to clarify – adds 2-3 months!! Providing clarity for his definition of long-term.

The other similarity I find between barbers and brokers (or as they are called hair and beauty service, and financial service providers respectively) – is their nice guy approach when the first service is over. So I am nearing the end of my hair cut, and typically I am asked – “Sir, will you like a hair color?” Now at this point, if I am not clear on whether I want it or not, it is quickly followed by something like – “It will look good on you Sir” or something to that effect telling me why I need it. Depending on the tone of my answer, the same service is pursued, or a new item in the menu card is proposed – the hope being that the 5 minutes between now and the end of my hair cut yield an add-on service that I purchase.

This is again similar to my experience with financial services providers of late. If I visit a bank, a ‘relationship manager’ arises from somewhere telling me that he will be the point of contact for me. So after some mundane task like submitting an application for a bank stamp on an ECS mandate is done, and I am waiting for the processing, the relationship manager quickly asks me if I am looking for stock and mutual fund advisory services, or else for insurance, or for credit cards – for something. A little bit of confusion shown on my face, and I am drowned in information on why I need it. Only when there is no option but to give me my ECS mandate, I am free to go.

So here we are, in the savvy new world of services with so many things on offer. A slight bit of confusion on your face is a sure sign for marketing spiel to follow. In such a scenario, whether it is barbers or it is brokers, it is important that the buyer is clear on what he wants, and not just that, is quite staunch about it. An extra hair color at a salon may not cause much harm, but a wrongly bought financial service or product is likely to do so. So as has been said by famous investors earlier, never ask a barber if you need a haircut (or for that matter any other hair and beauty service). It is in your interest to be clear about what you want. If at all you have a need to ask, ask someone whose advice you trust and will provide advice that is in your interest. Because whether it is a barber or a broker, like Lewis Carroll said – “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.”

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