Notes from Prof Aswath Damodaran’s talk at Google

I found this wonderful talk – both in style and substance, in numbers and stories – as he mentions – delivered by Prof Aswath Damodaran (of New York University) at Google posted on Youtube over this weekend. Here are some notes/ statements from this talk to takeaway: “Accounting is not valuation” “Goodwill is the most … Read more

One Idiot

One Idiot is a short 30-minute movie with a message on financial independence. The film is an initiative from IDFC Foundation (which may mean that it may indirectly and tacitly act as marketing for their mutual fund). But nevertheless despite that, it is a nice attempt to educate the youth of today’s urban India on the … Read more

Guru Speak: A glimpse into John Maynard Keynes’ profoundness

sepia tone if possA predominant economist from the early 20th century credited with shaping modern economic theory, now called ‘Keynesian theory’, John Maynard Keynes was a British economist and thinker who wrote a number of influential books and essays such as ‘The Economic Consequences of the Peace’, ‘The End of Laissez-faire’ and ‘The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money’. His writings, though centered around economics, gradually covered issues around human behavior, his profession and philosophy, and often had far-reaching, profound impact.

Here is a selection of a few lines from his famous writings:

1. When the accumulation of wealth is no longer of high social importance, there will be great changes in the code of morals.

2. By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.

3. The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task, if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past, the ocean will be flat again.

4. Most men love money and security more, and creation and construction less, as they get older.

5. Education is the inculcation of the incomprehensible, into the indifferent, by the incompetent.

6. If you owe your bank a hundred pounds, you have a problem. But if you owe it a million, the bank has.

7. The power to become habituated to his surroundings is a marked characteristic of mankind.

8. For my part I think that capitalism, wisely managed, can probably be made more efficient for attaining economic ends than any alternative system yet in sight, but that, in itself, it is in many ways extremely objectionable.

9. Capitalism is the astonishing belief that the nastiest motives of the nastiest men somehow or other work for the best results in the best of all possible worlds.

10. I do not know which makes a man more conservative — to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past.

11. The difficulty lies, not so much in developing the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds.

12. Professional investment may be likened to those newspaper competitions in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole.

13. Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.

14. It is generally agreed that casinos should, in the public interest, be inaccessible and expensive. And perhaps the same is true of Stock Exchanges.

15. For the importance of money essentially flows from its being a link between the present and the future.

16. People are apt to be unduly interested in discovering what average opinion believes the average opinion to be; and this weakness finds its nemesis in the stock market.

17. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

18. If farming were to be organized like the stock market, a farmer would sell his farm in the morning when it was raining, only to buy it back in the afternoon when the sun came out.

19. Most, probably all, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days or years to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits—a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as much the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.

20. It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.

Guru Speak: An Uncommon Man, Philip Fisher’s Famous Words

philfisherPhilip Fisher was an American investor best known as the pioneer of growth investing and the author of Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, a guide to growth investing that has remained in print ever since it was first published in 1958.

1. There is a complicating factor that makes the handling of investment mistakes more difficult. This is the ego in each of us. None of us likes to admit to himself that he has been wrong. If we have made a mistake in buying a stock but can sell the stock at a small profit, we have somehow lost any sense of having been foolish.

2. On the other hand, if we sell at a small loss we are quite unhappy about the whole matter. This reaction, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

3. More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could ‘at least come out even’ than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous.”

4. Investment is rarely an optimized process in hindsight. Most of the time, you can attempt to position yourself for a sub-optimal return, which ain’t too bad at all.

5. I don’t want a lot of good investments; I want a few outstanding ones. If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is almost never.

6. I remember my sense of shock some half-dozen years ago when I read a [stock] recommendation to sell shares of a company . . . The recommendation was not based on any long-term fundamentals. Rather, it was that over the next six months the funds could be employed more profitably elsewhere.

7. The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.

Guru Speak: Sir John Templeton’s Famous Words

johntempleton1. Successful investing is only common sense. Each system for investing will eventually become obsolete.

2. The time to buy a stock is when the short-term owners have finished selling and the time to sell a stock is often when short-term owners have finished their buying.

3. Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and sell.

4. “This time is different” are among the most costly four words in market history.

5. Search for bargains. You should try to buy that particular investment whose market price is lowest in relation to your estimate of its true value.

6. I never ask if the market is going to go up or down, because I don’t know, and besides it doesn’t matter. I search nation after nation for stocks, asking: “Where is the one that is lowest priced in relation to what I believe it’s worth?”

7. The only investors who shouldn’t diversify are those who are right 100 percent of the time.

8. If you are diversified among different forms of wealth, nations, and industries, you’ll be safe in the long-run.

9. Experience teaches us that one of the most common errors in selecting stocks for purchase, or for sale, is the tendency to emphasize only the most obvious factor; namely the temporary outlook for sales and profits of the company.

10. The only certainty about the future is the fact that it will be different from the past.

11. For those properly prepared in advance, a bear market in stocks is not a calamity but an opportunity.

12. An investor who has all the answers doesn’t even understand the questions.

13. Diversify. In stocks and bonds, as in much else, there is safety in numbers.

14. …success is a process of continually seeking answers to new questions.

15. People are always asking me where is the outlook good, but that’s the wrong question…. The right question is: Where is the outlook the most miserable?

16. If you begin with prayer, you will think more clearly and make fewer mistakes.

Guru Speak: What John Bogle, father of index mutual fund investing, famously said

johnbogleJohn Bogle was the founder and retired CEO of the Vanguard Group. He is known for his 1999 book Common Sense on Mutual Funds: New Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor, which became a bestseller and is considered a classic. A proponent of mutual funds for individual investors to build long term wealth, Bogle (through Vanguard) was the first to introduce low cost Index funds for individuals. Here are some famous words:

1. Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy.

2. If you have trouble imaging a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks.

3. When reward is at its pinnacle, risk is near at hand.

4. We now have an equity fund industry that’s [worth] $2 trillion, and if everyone wants their $2 trillion back tomorrow, they’re not going to get it.

5. Capitalism requires a structure and value system that people believe in and can depend on.

6. The scandal is not what’s illegal. It’s what’s legal.

Guru Speak: Famous Warren Buffett Quotes

1. Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.

2. A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought.

3. Beware of geeks bearing formulas.

4. Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction.

5. Never ask a barber if you need a haircut

6. I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.

7. We’ve long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.

8. If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.

9. If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.

10. It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.

Warren-Buffett-9230729-1-40211. Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.

12. Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.

13. Our favorite holding period is forever.

14. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

15. There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult.

16. Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.

17. We believe that according the name ‘investors’ to institutions that trade actively is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a ‘romantic.’

18. We enjoy the process far more than the proceeds.

19. We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.

20. You do things when the opportunities come along. I’ve had periods in my life when I’ve had a bundle of ideas come along, and I’ve had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I’ll do something. If not, I won’t do a damn thing.

21. Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investing style.

Ranjit’s Newsletter

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